Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.603182 8.756581 10.002250 11.444613 13.065654 14.828090 16.886067
2025-12-28 6.090534 7.684710 9.542788 11.856079 14.645533 17.886559 21.922121
2026-01-04 5.247368 7.024596 9.199926 12.035071 15.606482 19.927863 25.520775
2026-01-11 4.489063 6.346937 8.725210 11.955901 16.187564 21.494610 28.599323
2026-01-18 3.895076 5.781112 8.292813 11.830274 16.622494 22.819351 31.356144
2026-01-25 3.457254 5.365591 8.000465 11.834670 17.188017 24.301198 34.350586
2026-02-01 3.123425 5.051728 7.803995 11.929957 17.849695 25.909228 37.553860
2026-02-08 2.790717 4.698769 7.511066 11.849190 18.236899 27.136025 40.267596
2026-02-15 2.498329 4.372863 7.222264 11.738757 18.554039 28.256027 42.856446
2026-02-22 2.288204 4.152496 7.068457 11.807462 19.120271 29.736409 45.998390
2026-03-01 2.159673 4.050402 7.085259 12.129696 20.071036 31.802064 50.055978
2026-03-08 1.940269 3.771788 6.795253 11.943939 20.224634 32.685590 52.400060
2026-03-15 1.675200 3.389509 6.308996 11.415023 19.821547 32.729193 53.520731
2026-03-22 1.589420 3.320184 6.341342 11.737292 20.785205 34.896933 57.946451
2026-03-29 1.493382 3.220747 6.310990 11.946210 21.567039 36.804252 62.032157
2026-04-05 1.360851 3.037327 6.116374 11.856493 21.844614 37.920633 64.918191
2026-04-12 1.237748 2.858638 5.914164 11.735647 22.055822 38.929311 67.659549
2026-04-19 1.143317 2.727441 5.787871 11.738647 22.472640 40.280150 70.989205
2026-04-26 1.068951 2.629829 5.716261 11.833743 23.049176 41.909714 74.821674
2026-05-03 0.980866 2.493022 5.557137 11.753376 23.306866 43.011125 77.817810
2026-05-10 0.897863 2.357939 5.389691 11.643784 23.501534 44.006448 80.663543
2026-05-17 0.840357 2.274066 5.318122 11.711982 24.018754 45.566312 84.502388
2026-05-24 0.811175 2.253028 5.373953 12.031948 25.013697 47.985644 89.876126